Indian Cell and Module Market – Current Demand & Supplies
The solar supply chain around the globe is still grappling with COVID-19 effects. The demand and supply situation is still not stabilizing in China as well. The polysilicon situation has started improving with manufacturers have started production again. In India, the situation has been improving briskly in many parts but the conditions in metros have been becoming really alarming due to rise in number of COVID-19 patients affecting solar industry as well. The silver lining is that Adani has won 8 GW tender including 2 GW expansion in Solar Cells and Modules in India. This would improve the chances of creating local manufacturing eco system for solar products and equipment’s in India.
The direct imported modules prices of 330 Watt multi fell below USD 0.16 per watt for quantities in mega watt scale. The prices of imported multi and mono solar cells however remained stable during this week and expected to start improving due to rise in demand. Further, though discussions relating to Safeguard Duty (SGD) and Basic Customs Duty (BCD) are quite hot among government circles, eSun sees that it is less likely that SGD is extended immediately and further BCD would also be expected to remain around 5% or so, starting from Aug 2020. This could further deepen the sentiments of local solar manufacturers. However, this move could also prove to be a boon in disguise as the fall in prices due to lifting of duties might improve the demand in the country for solar products.
With returning of manpower the local manufacturing of solar cells and solar modules in the country has been improving though at a lower rate. Due to spurt in demand for DCR products, the production capacity of DCR cells and modules have been continuously improving. This has been improving the sentiments of SME players in the India solar market as well. The capacity utilization of biggies like Adani and Waaree Energies has been continuously improving though Vikram Solar has still been struggling to ramp its capacities. The DCR cell manufacturer, Jupiter has been running almost at its peak due to high demand for DCR modules in the market.
The demand for solar products has been started improving in many parts of India though this is just a peanut for the solar industry. The demand of DCR cells and modules has picked up more than expected during this period. The Govt Rooftop tenders especially of Rajasthan have been playing a key role for SME and solar start ups at the moment. Down south, the private demand for solar products has been showing some signs of revival as well. The private PV demand is expected to remain below par for this quarter putting many at very high probability of shutting their rooftop solar business permanently.
Impact on Solar Cells and Solar Module Pricing
The prices of solar cells are expected to remain firm and also might be seen some improvement during this week. The dollar is expected to remain in the range of 75.50 to 76.50 during this week. However, the prices of solar modules have been falling due to scanty demand. The rates of local non DCR multi 330 watt modules by Tier-1 Indian module manufacturers have seen between Rs. 16 to Rs. 17 per watt where as non DCR mono PERC 380 watt modules are available in the range of Rs. 18.50 to 19.50 per watt. The non DCR module prices are expected to remain at these levels at least in the short run.
See you next week with next analysis of the prices. Stay at work safely. Best Wishes.