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Weekly Price Analysis – Edition 5th Oct 2020

Indian Cell and Module Market – Current Demand & Supplies

The global supply chain is expected to face challenges of oversupply in the coming weeks as most of the polysilicon and wafer suppliers are back into production now. Further, the demand for solar cells and modules especially for multi products has been weakening due to increased interest in mono solar products in the market. The green field expansion programmes in the complete supply chain (like polysilicon, wafer, cells and modules) by top Chinese players have been proving the interest of customers in renewable energy under the current situation. The Chinese market will remain closed for Chinese New Year (CNY). The market conditions in India have remained sluggish due to COVID conditions. The demand for solar products in India has been further weakening as well. The BCD (Basic Customs Duty) on import of solar cells and modules has still been a big riddle for market players as there is no announcement by the Govt of India.

  

Imported Supplies

Due to the slow down of demand for solar cells, the prices of solar cells are further expected to soften down in the next couple of weeks. The price of 18.8% multi solar cells FOB China price has remained in the bracket of USD 0.31 to USD 0.315 per pc. The price of multi modules of 335/340 watt has also been starting softening once again. The expected price of multi modules has remained around USD 0.168 per watt FOB China. However, the prices of high wattage mono PERC modules still maintained the firmness due to increased demand from customers, hence these modules still enjoy the price bracket of USD 0.208 to 0.217 per watt FOB China basis.   

Local Manufacturing

The manufacturing of solar modules in Gujarat has been hit hard due to low price tendered in the next Gujarat tender under DCR category and further the issue is still languishing in the court.  The manufacturers are expecting demand for modules under DCR tender of Rajasthan Discoms. The uncertainty over DCR has been severely taking toll on new projects expansion projects of the solar manufacturers.    

Demand

The demand for locally manufactured solar cells has remained intact due to limited supplies. The orders for locally manufactured DCR modules has remained a bit sluggish due to closure of the first Gujarat Tender. The requirement of large ticket size projects has also been impacted due to the recent price rise of modules  in China coupled with uncertainty over BCD. Further the demand from private sector energy customers has been the only silver lining for the sector.     

Impact on Solar Cells and Solar Module Pricing

There is not much change in the market since last week due to weak demand and manufacturers have been pitching low prices in order to grab the orders. The margins of large companies have also been hit due to sluggish demand.  The price for 100 kW order size of locally manufactured non-DCR modules of multi 330/335 watt has remained in the price bracket of Rs. 15.90 to Rs. 16.80 delivered. Whereas the price of mono PERC modules of 370/380 watt modules under non-DCR locally manufactured category is in the range of Rs. 18.40 to Rs. 19.20 per watt delivered. The dollar exchange rate is expected to remain between Rs. 73 to Rs. 74. The prices of DCR modules of 320/330 watt multi are in the range of Rs. 19.50 to Rs. 20 per watt delivered. The price of DCR modules of 335 watt are being sold in the range of Rs. 21 per watt for orders below 100 kW. 

See you next week for the next analysis of the prices. Stay at work safely. Best Wishes.     

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