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Weekly Price Analysis – Edition 12th Oct 2020

Indian Cell and Module Market – Current Demand & Supplies

As the global solar supply chain is blatantly dominated by the Chinese companies, the solar players in China have just started operations starting from this week after CNY holidays. The polysilicon and wafer supplies are expected to remain in abundance which would push the prices in negative territories once again. However, the Chinese internal demand could change the situation a bit though. The global demand for solar products from major markets like the USA, EU, Japan, Australia and Middle East have been showing signs of recovery though demand from Indian market has been considerably remaining under shadow of BCD and COVID conditions. The news of Indian PSUs like NTPC has been exploring their entry into production of polysilicon in India could prove to be a game changer for Modi Govt. Further, BCD is still an enigma for Indian solar market.       

Imported Supplies

The prices of imported solar cells and modules are expected to remain soft due to low demand and excess supply in the market with an exception of high wattage mono PERC modules. The price of multi solar cells are expected to revolve around USD 0.31 per pc on FOB China terms basis whereas the modules of 335/340 watt can be procured at a rate of USD 0.167 to USD 0.169 per watt FOB China basis.  However, the high wattage mono PERC modules like 420 Watt to 445 Watt can be bought at higher ranges of USD 0.21 per watt FOB China basis as the supplies are scarce due to the limited number of suppliers that have BIS certification for these ranges of modules in India.  

Local Manufacturing

The Indian encapsulant and back sheet markets are getting hot with the announcement of capacity expansion plans of local manufacturer, RenewSys for encapsulant (1.65 GW to 3 GW) and back sheet (3GW to 4GW) along with entry of Austrian manufacturer, Borealis with Waaree as Indian partner for manufacturing of encapsulants in India by year end. Borealis-Waaree project would offer state of the art technology products that would enhance the life of the solar modules further. The trend clearly shows that manufacturing eco-system for solar products have started taking shape. Further, local manufacturing of modules under DCR category is still waiting for the Gujarat new tender to take off. The manufacturing of non-DCR modules has been predominantly taken over by large players like Adani, Vikram, Waaree, Goldi and RenewSys.         

Demand

The demand for DCR solar cells has been partially hit due to slowdown in demand of DCR modules in the Gujarat market. However, the orders for CPSU scheme are expected to pour in from next couple of weeks’ time. The demand from private players and GW tenders has remained paralyzed due to uncertainty of BCD.  

Impact on Solar Cells and Solar Module Pricing

The dollar exchange rate is expected to remain around Rs. 73.50. The price for locally manufactured non-DCR modules of multi 330/335 watt has remained around Rs. 16.00 delivered for order size of 100 kW order whereas price can go down to Rs. 15.50 per watt for orders in the range of MW. Whereas the price of non-DCR locally manufactured mono PERC modules of 370/380 watt is around Rs. 18.50 watt delivered for 100 Kw quantity. The prices of DCR modules of 320/330 watt multi are in the bracket of Rs. 19.50 to Rs. 20 per watt delivered, however, the price of DCR modules of 335 watt are being sold at higher rates. 

See you next week for the next analysis of the prices. Stay at work safely. Best Wishes.

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