Weekly Price Analysis – Edition 7th Sept 2020

Indian Cell and Module Market – Current Demand & Supplies

The pandemic conditions have severely impacted the overall growth of Indian economy as the GDP growth remained -24%. This has sent shivers across the nation. The perception of dampness in mood would also impact the Indian solar industry as well. Internationally, the solar supply chain has remained subdued due to lack of demand as the recurrence of COVID cases in EU, USA and other countries are on the rise. The price increase of glass and back sheet has started pinching module makers in China. The phenomenon is going to impact Indian module manufacturers as well. Further there is a complete lull in the market as the announcement of BCD is getting delayed. However, escalation of India-China tension once again may spur the activity regarding the announcement of the duties.        

Imported Supplies

The FOB China price of 18.6% to 18.8% multi solar cells is seen around USD 0.32/- per pc whereas the FOB China price for 340 multi modules are being offered around USD 0.163/- per watt. Similarly, the high wattage modules like 400 plus watt are being priced around USD 0.205 per watt FOB China. However, the prices of solar modules could be impacted soon due to the price increase of glass and backsheet. The large size orders from China for solar cells and modules have remained on hold due to uncertain conditions created due to delay in announcement of BCD and COVID.   

Local Manufacturing

The manufacturing of solar modules of 310/320 watt modules is on the rise due to DCR pump orders. The green field projects and capacity expansion of solar module manufacturing have also been on the rise in the wake of future DCR orders and BCD announcements. The price rise in solar glass could impact the solar module manufacturers in the next few weeks’ time.    

Demand

The demand situation for solar cells and modules in India has still not been buoyant except for demand for DCR cells and modules. Only deep pocketed private players have again started executing their plans of adopting solar energy in the rooftop segment. Further, the Govt has incentivized the demand for solar plants by farmers through priority sector lending. This could prove a shot in the arm for creating the demand of solar products in the medium and long term basis. Furthermore, lack of demand for solar products has been severely impacting SME players operating in this sector. However, the large scale solar projects except in the containment zones have been back on the roll though at a lower speed. This has been giving some ray of hope of recovery for the solar sector.        

Impact on Solar Cells and Solar Module Pricing

The dollar exchange rate has seen between Rs. 73 to Rs. 74 due to high inflows of FDIs in the country. The prices of imported solar cells remained in range bound not impacting much the prices of non DCR solar modules. Further, the prices of solar modules non-DCR multi 330/335 watt by local manufacturers have seen hovering around Rs. 16.50 whereas top players like Adani have been selling at 17.50 per watt in some markets.  The prices of non DCR mono PERC 375/380 watt modules are being offered between Rs. 18.50 to Rs. 19 per watt. The prices of DCR modules of multi 330 watt are priced in the range of Rs. 20 to Rs. 21 per watt. 

See you next week for the next analysis of the prices. Stay at work safely. Best Wishes.