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Weekly Price Analysis – Edition 28th Sept 2020

Indian Cell and Module Market – Current Demand & Supplies

The solar supply chain globally has been relatively becoming near normal though there are concerns for low demand for solar products. The demand for polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules has remained below normal under the current COVID conditions. Further, the situation at India China international borders has been becoming intense day by day. The conditions might overshadow solar business in times to come due to over dependence on China. The news about the announcement of Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on import of solar cells and modules has again taken a momentum with the notice of MNRE, however, no concrete plans of quantum of duty & timelines have been announced yet.

Imported Supplies

The solar cell price announcements of Tonwei and Longi have confirmed that there is no downward price movement in next week.  The FOB China price for 18.8% multi solar cells is expected to remain in the range of USD 0.32 to USD 0.33/- per pc. The price of 335/340 watt multi modules is expected to remain around USD 0.17 per watt on FOB China terms basis. However, the prices of high wattage mono PERC modules like 420/440, though short in supply at the moment for Indian market due to limited BIS certifications, is expected to remain in the range of USD 0.21 to USD 0.22 per watt FOB China basis.

Local Manufacturing

The local manufacturing of solar products in the country has been getting hit hard due to the pandemic situation. However, the manufacturing capacity utilization of DCR cells and modules of a few companies has been remaining quite impressive. The production capacity of lower wattage DCR modules is at full swing by SME players like PV Power, Insolation, Kosol among others. The expansion plans of many local module manufacturers are expected to take shape after the announcement of BCD.     

Demand

Once again the demand for solar products in India has been remaining sluggish due to COVID conditions though the private industrial requirement of solar energy has remained a silver lining. The demand for DCR solar cells and modules has remained intact in the country. However, the demand from large private solar players is held up due to uncertainty of BCD. The demand for manufacturing of solar cells and modules under Govt tenders of CPSU scheme is still not picking up at the moment due to slow off take by the bidders.     

Impact on Solar Cells and Solar Module Pricing

Due to high levels of competition in the module market, the desperation to sell has been seen in the market. The tier -1 local manufacturing companies have been bidding to new lows to get the orders in megawatt scales. However, non-DCR locally manufactured orders around 100 kw of solar modules of multi 330/335 watt are available in the price range of Rs. 16.00 to Rs. 17.00 delivered by majority of the Indian manufacturers through their channel partners. Similarly, such orders of non-DCR locally manufactured mono PERC modules of 370/380 watt modules are available in the price range of Rs. 18.50 to Rs. 19.00 per watt delivered. The dollar exchange rate is expected to remain between Rs. 73.50 to Rs. 74.00. The prices of 320/330 watt multi DCR modules are priced in the range of Rs. 19.50 to Rs. 20 per watt delivered. However, premium DCR modules are sold in the range of Rs. 21 per watt. 

See you next week for the next analysis of the prices. Stay at work safely. Best Wishes.

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