Indian Cell and Module Market – Current Demand & Supplies
The global supply chain of solar is getting impacted by Yuan currency fluctuations, availability & pricing of PV module glass and re-lockdown conditions in Europe again. The Yuan appreciation against the dollar has made up some of the price rise in solar products in the Chinese market. The pricing of multi crystalline products have also started firming up as well besides mono crystalline cells and modules due to Q42020 internal demand. There is no great improvement at the international borders of India and China. Once again rumours are ripe that Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on import of solar cells and modules can be announced from 1st of November, 2020 though there is no official confirmation yet.
Imported Supplies
The large scale imports of PV modules supplies have been impacted due to BCD enigma. However, the supplies of imported PV cells are more or less intact. Further, the prices Chinese imported PV cells of 18.6%/18.8%/18.9% efficiency are assumed to remain in the bracket of USD 0.32 to USD 0.335 per pc on FOB China basis. The prices of 158.75 mm mono PERC cells shall remain between USD 0.10 to USD 0.11 per watt FOB China basis. The imported multi modules of 335/340 watt are priced in the range of USD 0.17 to USD 0.175 per watt FOB China basis. Due to firm demand for imported high wattage modules of 420 watt and above, the pricing is ranged between USD 0.21 to USD 0.22 per watt FOB China basis.
Local Manufacturing
With the advent of higher wattage mono PERC modules like 420 plus watts in the Indian solar market, the customers have also been upgrading their requirement accordingly. Local module manufacturers like RenewSys (DESERV Galactic Ultra 505 Wp) have started experimenting by introducing higher wattage/efficiency products for the Indian market. Further, as the Tata solar cell line is under installation and expected to start trials in the first week of Dec 2020, Waaree is on the verge of closure of the turnkey solution deal with SC China for its 1 GW cell line project. The local manufacturing of DCR solar cells and modules is expected to pick up once again from Nov 2020.
Demand
With more and more Indian and foreign national corporates are committing to renewable energy for their local operations, the future of Indian solar industry has been looking quite buoyant. However, the immediate demand for solar cells and modules has been greatly dependent on large scale Govt and non Govt projects in the pipeline. The BCD riddle, supply balancing through smart grids, issues in wheeling & transmission charges, interstate PPAs among others must be addressed for phenomenal demand and growth of the solar sector in India.
Impact on Solar Cells and Solar Module Pricing
The dollar exchange rate is assumed to remain within the bracket of Rs. 73.50 to Rs. 74.00. The local manufacturers are still grappling with high inventories of modules in their factories as well as with their channel partners due to sluggish demand. Currently, 330/335 watt non-DCR multi modules are available in the price bracket of Rs. 15.50 to Rs. 16 per watt by top Indian module manufacturers for orders of 100 kw. Similarly, mono PERC 370/380 watt non-DCR locally manufactured modules are available in the price range of Rs. 18.50 per watt for 100 kw order size. Further, the prices of modules may be reviewed soon due to sharp increase in prices of solar module glass. The 320/330 watt multi DCR modules are priced in the range of Rs. 19.00 to Rs. 20 per watt delivered.
See you next week for the next analysis of the prices. Stay at work safely. Best Wishes.
Very useful