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Weekly Price Analysis – Edition 23rd Nov 2020

Indian Cell and Module Market – Current Demand & Supplies

The solar supply chain has new ghost i.e PV Glass. Severe shortages of PV glass have been forcing many top module manufacturers of the world to enter into long term contracts for securing supplies of 3.2 mm PV glass. The glut of polysilicon for multi as well mono have been putting pressure on prices of raw materials as well as wafers. The solar installations have been severely impacted (down by almost 70%) in India in the last one year due to policy uncertainty on BCD and COVID situation. The yesterday’s announcement of PM Modi for achieving more than committed targets of Paris agreement in terms of CO2 levels shall be a big news for India solar industry. Similarly, the announcement of Chairman of Reliance Industries Limited, Mr. Mukesh Ambani regarding the robust role of renewable energy in the coming years will be a great encouragement. 

Imported Supplies

The imported supplies of solar cells and modules have remained under the shadow of low demand in the country. The prices of 18.6% to 18.9% solar cells are available in the bracket of USD 0.322 to USD 0.335 per pc FOB China basis. The mono PERC Cells are priced in the range of USD 0.102 to USD 0.111 per watt FOB China basis. Further the prices of imported 335/340 watt multicrystalline PV modules have remained in the price bracket of USD 0.18/ USD 0.182 per watt  FOB China. The high wattage mono PERC 420 watt and above modules which are in short supply at the moment can be bought at USD 0.22 to USD 0.225 per watt FOB China basis. The price rise in modules is mainly due to dollar exchange rate and shortages of PV glass in the market besides cost increase in other input costs.

Local Manufacturing

The sluggishness in manufacturing activity has been still continued due to high stock levels with module makers. However, the manufacturing of solar cells has remained intact in the country though with slightly low off take due to delay in implementation of Gujarat DCR Tender- 2. Further, the green field project of 250 MW solar cell line by Chinese Govt owned company, CETC has become active once again. The cell line projects of Tata (250 MW), Premier (500 MW) and CETC (250 MW) are expected to come into production by Feb/ Mar 2021. Although, the expansion plans of modules lines by Vikram and Waaree have been delayed by a few months due to slow demand in the market.    

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Demand

The recent change in KUSUM scheme for inclusion of solar generation plants by farmers for a size between 500 kw to 4 MW could rekindle the demand in the Indian solar market. Indian solar sector market demand from a long term perspective shall be quite attractive though with short time hiccups. The demand for DCR solar modules is further expected to pick up by mid of Dec 2020. 

Impact on Solar Cells and Solar Module Pricing

The price of non-DCR locally manufactured 330/335 watt PV modules has started increasing to the levels of Rs. 16 per watt due to rise in input costs including PV Glass. However, due to high levels of inventories carried by top module manufacturers, the rumoured prices have been touching lows of Rs. 15.00 to Rs. 15.25 per watt. The price of locally manufactured 370/380 watt non-DCR mono PERC  is between  Rs. 18.50 to Rs. 19 per watt. The dollar exchange rate has been oscillating between the levels of Rs. 74.00 to Rs. 74.50.  The prices of 330/335 Watt DCR modules have remained in the price brackets of Rs. 19.00 to Rs. 19.50 with some exceptions of higher and lower prices offered by a few module makers. 

See you next week for the next analysis of the prices. Stay at work safely. Best Wishes.     

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