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Weekly Price Analysis – Edition 21st Sept 2020

Indian Cell and Module Market – Current Demand & Supplies

The international solar supply chain has been getting a bit stable after the recent shocks of explosions and severe flooding in China. This uncertainty has been largely mitigated with the resumption of supplies of polysilicon and downturn materials. However, the prices of wafers have not returned to previous levels but have been stabilizing to certain extent. Similarly, the other input materials like silver paste, glass and other items though are still at high levels but showing signs of stability. Further, the situation at Indo-China borders has become really fluid with strong built ups from both sides. Since India is highly dependent on China for almost 90% of the solar items, the scenes are becoming a bit worrisome for solar businesses in India. The chances of announcement of BCD have been becoming dim once again with sharp downfall in capacity addition of solar projects in India. However, the situation would become more transparent in the next couple of weeks’ time.       

Imported Supplies

The prices of both multi and mono solar cells have been seen losing firmness this week. The overall scene is favourable for Indian solar module manufacturers. Further, the capacities of Chinese Top 5 module manufacturers have been largely booked till end of Nov due to rush of orders from Chinese domestic markets and spurt in exports to EU and USA. The price of multi solar cells of 18.8% has been around USD 0.33/- per pc on FOB China basis. Though the prices of 335/340 watt multi modules on FOB China terms basis have remained in the bracket of USD 0.168 to USD 0.175/- per watt. Due to high demand for premium modules of like 400/435 plus watt are seen short in supply at the moment, further pushing the prices towards sub 0.21 per watt FOB China levels. 

Local Manufacturing

The COVID conditions in the country have been becoming murkier, though formal media is silent about it, and have also been shadowing over manufacturing of solar products in the country. The production of a few players has also been partially hit due to COVID cases. Further, the DCR module manufacturing of SME players in Gujarat has also remained lackluster in recent weeks though manufacturing of DCR cells has been in full swing in the country. The plans of Waaree for venturing into solar cell manufacturing have been taking shape with inquiries for machines and materials. However, Renew Power has slowed down its pace regarding manufacturing plans due to uncertainty about BCD. The solar cell expansion plans of Tata, Jupiter and Premier have remained intact though.      

Demand

The demand for DCR modules for Rajasthan discom tenders has started picking up. However, the discoms have been refusing to go out of Rajasthan for verification of less than 1.5 MW quantities manufactured DCR modules. This has been limiting the demand to module manufacturing plants in Rajasthan only. The overall demand for solar products in India though remained sluggish due to effects of pandemic conditions.      

Impact on Solar Cells and Solar Module Pricing

The dollar exchange rate is expected to remain around Rs. 73.50. The non-DCR locally manufactured solar modules of multi 330/335 watt are available in the price range of Rs. 16.50 to Rs. 17.00 delivered by majority of the Indian manufacturers. The non-DCR locally manufactured mono PERC modules of 370/380 watt modules are available in the price bracket of Rs. 18.50 to Rs. 19.00 per watt delivered. The prices of 330/335 watt multi DCR modules are available between Rs. 19.60 to Rs. 20.4 per watt delivered. However, market leaders like Adani have been selling DCR modules around Rs. 21 per watt. 

See you next week for the next analysis of the prices. Stay at work safely. Best Wishes. 

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