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Weekly Price Analysis – Edition 19th Oct 2020

Indian Cell and Module Market – Current Demand & Supplies

The solar supply chain globally shall remain stable with overstocking of materials at the moment. Internationally, demand for polysilicon for multicrystalline has been hit hard due to low demand however, the demand for mono polysilicon and large sized modules has been firm. Further, the border tensions between India and China could become uglier for the Indian solar industry if not addressed properly. There is a complete lull on implementation of Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on import of solar cells and modules at the moment.     

Imported Supplies

The price of imported 18.8%/18.9% efficiency cells is expected to remain in the range of USD 0.31 to USD 0.32 per pc on FOB China basis whereas the prices of mono PERC cells shall remain firm due to steady demand. The price of imported multi modules of 335/340 watt is expected to remain in the bracket of USD 0.167 to USD 0.172 per watt FOB China basis. The demand for imported higher wattage modules of 420 watt and above is quite firm at the moment and prices of these modules are in the range of USD 0.208 to USD 0.212 per watt FOB China basis. 

Local Manufacturing

The current capacity utilization has been hit due to weak demand in the market though with some exceptions. The non-DCR module manufacturing has been performing poorly in particular.  Further, the capacity addition of solar module manufacturing has slowly been added by the SME sector as well.  The expansion project of Tata solar cell line is more or less as per schedule though the Premier project has got delayed by a month or so due to heavy flooding in the Hyderabad region. However, the projects of Renew Power and Vikram Solar cell lines will take shape in Q1/Q2 2021 only. Hectic negotiations are underway with machine suppliers by Waaree for its 1 GW cell line project.  

Demand

As the demand for renewable energy has been picking up around the world due to environmental issues, Indian corporates have also started switching to solar energy steadily. This has been giving impetus for demand for solar products in India. The demand from large scale projects has still been quite low due to lack of clarity on BCD issues. The demand for DCR cells and modules is expected to be picked up once again in the next couple of weeks time. 

Impact on Solar Cells and Solar Module Pricing

The local manufacturers are full of inventories of modules due to weak demand in the market. This has been impacting the prices of solar modules in India. The dollar exchange rate is expected to be within the bracket of Rs. 73.50 to Rs. 74.00. Further, the price of non-DCR 330/335 watt multi modules is around Rs. 15.80 per watt by tier-1 Indian module makers even for order size of 100 kw. Similarly, the prices of non-DCR mono PERC locally made modules of 370/380 watt are around Rs. 18.60 per watt.  The price bracket of 320/330 watt multi DCR modules is between Rs. 19.25 to Rs. 20 per watt delivered, though, the price of modules of 335 watt DCR are priced in higher ranges. 

See you next week for the next analysis of the prices. Stay at work safely. Best Wishes.

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